The battered Cleveland Browns climbed the NFL’s toughest division after two weeks of brutal AFC North games. Cleveland defeated division rivals the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers in consecutive weeks for the first time in 15 tries. Those historic victories significantly improved their playoff chances.
The Browns have an 89 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. Despite the loss of All-Pro running back Nick Chubb and $230 million Deshaun Watson, the team remains competitive. Myles Garrett leads a historic defense that is dead set on winning regardless of offensive output. Here are the chances for Cleveland in the AFC North and beyond.
Many consider Chubb to be the best running back in football. This summer, Sports Illustrated polled coaches, players, and executives, who chose the Browns’ workhorse over Christian McCaffrey as the NFL’s top running back. His distinct combination of size, speed, and consistency earned him first place. Over his career, he’s averaged 1,210 yards per season on an insane 5.3 yards per carry, ranking third all-time among running backs.
.@JeromeFord broke the plane!#PITvsCLE on CBS & NFL+ pic.twitter.com/oF4GSI5D3m
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) November 19, 2023
Watson struggled throughout the season. Of course, in true Browns fashion, his season was cut short after he went 14-for-14 in the second half against the Ravens. To make matters worse, they have also lost Pro Bowl tackle Jack Conklin for the season. The loss of all of these key players should doom any team’s chances. However, the Dawg Pound soldiers prevailed due to their century-long defense.
Cleveland turned to Garrett and their exceptional defense to overcome the never-ending injuries in a competitive division. The Athletic’s Zac Jackson described how special this unit has been. Here are a few examples:
The three-and-out rate is 52.7 percent (the highest rate this century).
On 43.4 percent of snaps, opponents gained zero or negative yards (the highest rate this century).
Only 243.3 yards per game allowed, the fewest since the 2008 Steelers.
131.68 Expected Points Added (EPA), 27 more than the Ravens in second place.
Their godlike defensive end is now the +100 favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, with Micah Parsons (+230) and T.J. Watt (+340) struggling to keep up. With their offense running on spare parts, the defense must continue to wreck havoc. Garrett emphasized their unwavering perseverance:
Unfortunately, Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury makes the AFC North only slightly less intimidating. Even if the Cincinnati Bengals do not participate, the Steelers, Ravens, and Browns would all be vying for divisional leads if they could transfer to a division other than the AFC North.
This gulag of a division has a 67 composite win percentage, which is roughly 15 points higher than the next closest division (AFC South), according to Rahul Mukherjee of Axios. The Browns must catch the 8-3 Ravens, who remain a half-game ahead in the AFC North.
The Baltimore Ravens have the second most difficult remaining schedule, trailing only the Cincinnati Bengals, according to ProFootballNetwork. For context, the Browns finished 16th, thanks to victories over the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears.
If they finish with the same record, it will be decided by divisional wins and losses. For the time being, they are tied at 3-2, which means that the final-season games between the Browns in Cincinnati and the Ravens at home against the Steelers could determine who wins the division. The NYT simulator gave Cleveland a 29 percent chance of winning the AFC North, owing to how well the Ravens have played. Worryingly for Browns fans, it reduces their chances of winning the Super Bowl to 3%.
Unfortunately, much of their hopes rest on fifth-round rookie quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR). They probably wish they hadn’t traded Josh Dobbs before the season, but they did so because they were so confident in DTR. Garrett, for one, has faith in the rookie:
DTR looked better against the Steelers in Week 11 after an understandably poor outing against the Ravens in his first start of 2023, thanks to a full week of practice and preparation. His stats against Pittsburgh aren’t exactly encouraging: 24 of 43 passing for 165 yards and one interception, with a 54.9 rating.
However, on their game-winning drive, he was nearly perfect (4-5 for 48 yards), with his only incompletion coming on a spike. It’s difficult to see them making a serious playoff run, but perhaps they’ll remember the old adage, “defense wins championships.”
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