The Edmonton Oilers and Minnesota Wild were the first two NHL teams to fire their head coaches, and both have performed admirably since then. Is this just a “coaching change bump” or has something more significant changed for the Oilers and Wild?
The Oilers were Stanley Cup favorites entering the 2023-24 season, but they won just three of their first 12 games and had a minus-19 goal differential. Jay Woodcroft was fired as a result, and he was replaced by Kris Knoblauch, who coached Connor McDavid when he was a member of the OHL’s Eerie Otters.
Although the Wild’s expectations were not as high as the Oilers’, they appeared to be the favorite to secure third place and the Central Division’s final guaranteed playoff spot. However, the normally stingy Wild were unable to keep opposing teams out of their net, and Dean Evason was fired after a 5-10-4 start to the season. Minnesota replaced him with John Hynes, who had previously played for the New Jersey Devils and the Nashville Predators in the NHL.
Edmonton and Minnesota have combined for a 22-9-0 record since making changes behind the bench, and both teams have clawed their way back into the playoff picture. Let’s look at what has gone right for them under Knoblauch and Hynes’ leadership.
Woodcroft won 14 playoff games in his first two seasons with the Oilers, but by the end of October, he had spent all of his goodwill. Edmonton struggled to score at an elite rate, as is typical, and couldn’t buy a save.
The Oilers were at or near the bottom of the NHL in terms of save percentage and shot percentage when Woodcroft was fired. Woodcroft may have gotten a tough deal, especially in light of the fact that some of Edmonton’s five-on-five metrics were rather good.
The Oilers were producing expected goals and dangerous scoring opportunities at a rapid pace despite the awful outcomes. Their offense was accomplishing everything but crossing the goal line, which is a crucial step in the scoring process. Even still, Edmonton fell 13 goals short of expectations, and with so much offensive talent on the squad, that was never going to last.
Since Knoblauch took over for Woodcroft, two key things have happened. First, that miserably low shooting percentage has regressed to the mean. Not much has changed in terms of the Oilers’ ability to create scoring chances at a high rate, but the puck is going in the net. Perhaps the biggest reason for that is the improved health of Connor McDavid.
While the Oilers were reeling, McDavid missed some time due to injury, and he still didn’t look 100% immediately upon his return. That caused McDavid to sag. When Woodcroft was still in charge, McDavid had just two goals and 10 points in 11 games. That’s fine for most players — and a one-legged McDavid is still probably a top-20 player — but something was clearly off with him.
After recently returning to full health, McDavid has switched into destroyer mode. McDavid has 10 goals and 24 assists in his 18 games played under Knoblauch. The Oilers now have a higher chance of winning every night just from that improvement.
The goaltending has also improved since Knoblauch took over as head coach. According to Natural Stat Trick, Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner had combined to allow 13.83 goals above average when the Oilers benched Woodcroft. Few teams could withstand a stretch of that bad goaltending.
Now that Skinner has returned to ordinary play and Campbell is in the AHL, Edmonton’s defense hasn’t improved significantly. Skinner has only let up 0.72 goals above average in his last 14 games. That’s not ideal, but when this Oilers team lights up the scoreboard, that’s really all they need in goal.
I do not mean to imply that regression is the only explanation for Knoblauch’s success. He has obviously made a good difference in the locker room, and he has expressed his desire for the players to just play rather than consider every move they make on the ice. That is probably advantageous for a guy with McDavid’s caliber and relieves some burden off a team that has been carrying a lot of high expectations.
The thing to remember is that under Woodcroft’s leadership, the Oilers weren’t exactly playing bad hockey. He was just the unfortunate beneficiary of some terrible puck luck, but a Stanley Cup contender can only ignore the outcome and concentrate on the process for so long before something has to give. Woodcroft was not receiving the information. Knoblauch exists.
With little room for error, the Oilers now have to make sure they don’t encounter any more speed bumps on their way out of this hole.
After four straight first-round playoff exits, Evason’s position was precarious going into the season, and it didn’t take long for things to get out of hand. Under Evason, Minnesota’s defining characteristic was its formidable defense, but during the first half of the season, the squad was letting up inconsistent numbers left and right.
Examining the Wild’s poor start more closely reveals some glaring red signs, unlike with the Oilers. The defense was just not good enough to offset the offense’s real shortcomings. Things were made worse by awful goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury and Filip Gustvasson.
Minnesota hasn’t been an especially good offensive team in five-on-five since Hynes took over, but their defense has improved dramatically. Under Hynes, the Wild have probably been the best defensive club in the NHL.
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