The Miami Dolphins face a difficult decision when it comes to important defensive free agent Christian Wilkins.
A to Z Sports Miami reporters Josh Queipo and Kyle DeDiminicantanio anticipate that the interior lineman will sign a four-year, $92 million contract with a $50 million guarantee. At the same time, the Dolphins are currently $51.898 million in the red, according to Over the Cap.
Despite this, Pro Football Focus analyst Brad Spielberger identified Wilkins as the primary free agent that Miami “can’t afford to lose” in 2024 free agency.
“Wilkins was the odd man out of the 2019 first rounders who signed marquee extensions this past offseason, and he used that as motivation to have the best pass-rush season of his career,” Spielberger said.
adding: “He has always been one of the best run defenders in the NFL and could push the pocket to free things up for other rushers, but his own pass-rush production came in 2023 to the tune of 58 pressures, nine sacks and 16 quarterback hits.”
So, how can the Dolphins keep their top free agent while also reducing their pay to break even?
Dolphins Would Have to Sign Christian Wilkins to Backloaded Extension
Miami is unlikely to franchise Wilkins in 2024. This spring, Over the Cap estimates a defensive tackle tag value of $19.753 million, which translates to a troublesome cap charge of the same amount.
When you don’t have the cash, there’s usually only one option for keeping a quality player: sign them to a backloaded deal. If Wilkins is extended, the Dolphins may be able to provide more guaranteed money in the long run on a contract that starts with a lower cap charge and climbs considerably over time.
The problem with such strategy is that Miami will be kicking the can down the road again.
Even if general manager Chris Grier is able to clear enough salary space through profitable roster cuts and restructures, this course of action will put them in a hazardous situation in the coming seasons. That’s what makes the Wilkins decision so difficult.
Dolphins Could Be Forced to Part Ways With Aging Veterans
Whether or not Miami extends Wilkins, they will need additional cap room to operate. Grier will undoubtedly restructure some contracts this summer, but the Dolphins can free up more cap space if they part ways with a couple of elderly veterans.
On January 16, Alex Ballentine of Bleacher Report proposed two cap casualties who meet this description: Xavien Howard and Terron Armstead. On paper, these may appear to be negative departures for Miami, but in fact, they are underperforming players who failed to live up to their contracts in 2023.
“The Dolphins are going to have to look at a few of their high-dollar players and decide whether they are still deserving of the big money they are making,” he said. “Howard just turned 30 and isn’t the ball-hawking playmaker he was when he signed his deal.”
The four-time Pro Bowl cornerback played 13 games for Miami this season, allowing 502 receiving yards and two touchdowns (62% reception rate) in pass coverage, according to Pro Football Focus. He also missed seven tackles and received seven penalties.
“The Dolphins would have to eat two big dead cap hits [if they cut Howard] ($11.4 million in 2024 and $15.7 million in 2025), but it would create $14.5 million in cap space this offseason,” Ballentine said.
Armstead, 32, was selected to the Pro Bowl despite only starting 10 games. His PFF grades were respectable when he was on the field — 72.6 as a run blocker and 79.5 in pass protection — but is his lack of availability worth a cap hit of more than $20 million?
Ballentine decided that it’s too much of a risk at age 33, noting that “cutting Terron Armstead and categorizing it as a post-June 1 cut would clear $9.4 million while incurring a $11.4 million dead cap penalty in 2024 and $12.7 million in 2025.”
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