Sheffield Wednesday remain near the bottom of the Championship table, with only a goal difference separating them from safety. Despite a slow start to the season, the Owls have made a great effort under Danny Rohl, and they now have a chance of survival in their first season back in the second tier.
With Rotherham United all but gone at the bottom, there is now a massive fight for survival, with Wednesday and three other teams on 38 points, Birmingham on 39, Millwall, Blackburn, and Plymouth on 40, and Swansea City in 15th on 42. It appears that just about anyone in the bottom half may be relegated, and Wednesday are hoping that it is not them, having secured a massive win against Plymouth last time out to push them into the bottom three.
The Owls will need to establish consistency, though, as this year’s survival rate is expected to be greater than in previous seasons. Here, we look at what that total could be and what prior Championship survival struggles have taught us.
Average Championship Survival Totals
What we do know is that the average total required to survive over the last ten Championship seasons is 43.9 points. That score is obtained by adding one point to the total of the team that finished 22nd, then calculating a 10-year average.
Now, that figure is unlikely to be the survival figure for this season, given that three teams from 23rd to 20th are already on 38 points, and it appears unlikely that – with 30 points up for grabs for the majority of those teams – the total will not be significantly higher this season, despite the fact that we are talking about teams that have generally struggled to score points.
The greatest points score that resulted in a side being relegated in the last ten years was 51, which Blackburn Rovers achieved in 2016. Rovers dropped to League One on goal difference, trailing Nottingham Forest by -12 goals to Forest’s -10. The 50-point level normally assures survival in the Championship, but that season was an exception. Charlton were equally unfortunate to be relegated with 48 points in 2020.
In terms of current season, statistical analysts FootballWP feel it will not require as many points as it did last season to avoid relegation. They predict that QPR will stay up with 46 points and Huddersfield will drop to 45. They also anticipate Wednesday will finish with 44 points, which means they will earn only six points out of a potential 30 between now and the conclusion of the season. Wednesday’s run-in is not especially friendly, with back-to-back games against Leeds and Ipswich, but they will go into their last ten knowing that three or four victories should suffice.
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